What if I had invested in the Shanghai Composite
Every lump sum scenario for the Shanghai Composite, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
Since December 2003, the Shanghai Composite (a Chinese stock index) returned only +4.9% a year in dollar terms, +199.2% over nearly 23 years. Its record monthly close, 5,955 points in October 2007, is still far off: the current price, 3,608 points, is 39.4% below it. Of the 275 possible purchase months since December 2003, 86% would show a gain today for a lump sum: the entry point mattered.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 3, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in the Shanghai Composite in January 2016, today I would have $992
Over the same period
Worst moment: −34.1% between January 2018 and December 2018. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
Shanghai Composite (China) at a glance
The Shanghai Composite covers every stock listed on the Shanghai exchange. Dominated by banks and state-owned companies, it went through two spectacular bubbles, in 2007 and 2015, and remains far below its records despite China’s growth.
Its worst fall, 68.3% in dollar terms between October 2007 and October 2008, has not been erased yet: the October 2007 peak is still out of reach. Its best calendar year was 2006 (+138.4%), its worst 2008 (−63.0%); in all, 12 up years out of 22. Against the MSCI World, this calculator's yardstick (+7.0% a year in dollar terms over the same period), the Shanghai Composite did worse.
$1,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,180 | ×1.18 | +9.0% | |
| $1,287 | ×1.29 | +9.0% | |
| $1,210 | ×1.21 | +5.0% | |
| $949 | ×0.95 | −1.1% | |
| $1,017 | ×1.02 | +0.3% | |
| $1,241 | ×1.24 | +3.2% | |
| $1,494 | ×1.49 | +5.2% | |
| $1,066 | ×1.07 | +0.7% | |
| $1,212 | ×1.21 | +2.0% | |
| $992 | ×0.99 | −0.1% | |
| $1,037 | ×1.04 | +0.3% | |
| $1,550 | ×1.55 | +3.4% | |
| $1,489 | ×1.49 | +2.9% | |
| $1,554 | ×1.55 | +3.0% | |
| $1,276 | ×1.28 | +1.5% | |
| $1,129 | ×1.13 | +0.7% | |
| $2,027 | ×2.03 | +4.0% | |
| $751 | ×0.75 | −1.5% | |
| $1,579 | ×1.58 | +2.3% | |
| $3,765 | ×3.77 | +6.5% | |
| $3,536 | ×3.54 | +5.9% | |
| $2,992 | ×2.99 | +4.9% |
Lump sum or DCA in the Shanghai Composite?
Since January 2016, investing in the Shanghai Composite all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×0.99, −0.1% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×1.16, an annual return (IRR) of +2.6%.
Here DCA did better: spreading the purchases avoided putting all the money in at the wrong time.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite 10 years ago be worth today?
$1,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite in January 2016 would be worth about $992 today, an average annual return of −0.1% (price only, in the displayed currency).
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Shanghai Composite in 2015?
Invested in January 2015, $1,000 would be worth about $1,037 today, +0.3% a year on average.
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Shanghai Composite in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $1,241 today, +3.2% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in the Shanghai Composite?
Among the start years covered, 2006 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $3,765. The weakest was 2008, worth $751 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. The Shanghai Composite trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.