What if I had invested in the Hang Seng
Every lump sum scenario for the Hang Seng, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
The Hang Seng, a Hong Kong stock index, gained 94.8% in dollar terms between December 2003 and November 2026: a modest +3.0% a year. Its monthly close has moved between 11,943 points (April 2004) and 32,887 points (January 2018); it now stands at 24,797 points. A lump sum would have paid off for 72% of the 275 possible purchase months since December 2003; the rest are still underwater.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 5, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in the Hang Seng in January 2016, today I would have $1,118
Over the same period
Worst moment: −55.5% between January 2018 and October 2022. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) at a glance
The Hang Seng tracks the largest companies listed in Hong Kong, including many Chinese giants (Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan…). Quoted in Hong Kong dollars, pegged to the US dollar, it went through a long decline after its 2018 peak and China’s 2021 regulatory crackdown.
The ride was anything but smooth: between October 2007 and February 2009, the Hang Seng lost 59.1% of its value in dollar terms, and it took until January 2018 to regain that peak, 10 years and 3 months later. Calendar year after calendar year, 14 of 22 ended higher; the best, 2009, returned +51.5%, the worst, 2008, cost 47.8%. Over the same period, the MSCI World (price index) returned +7.0% a year in dollar terms: the Hang Seng did worse.
$1,000 invested in the Hang Seng, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,223 | ×1.22 | +11.1% | |
| $1,448 | ×1.45 | +13.5% | |
| $1,249 | ×1.25 | +5.8% | |
| $1,054 | ×1.05 | +1.1% | |
| $900 | ×0.9 | −1.8% | |
| $873 | ×0.87 | −1.9% | |
| $958 | ×0.96 | −0.5% | |
| $825 | ×0.83 | −2.1% | |
| $1,114 | ×1.11 | +1.1% | |
| $1,118 | ×1.12 | +1.0% | |
| $1,039 | ×1.04 | +0.3% | |
| $1,052 | ×1.05 | +0.4% | |
| $1,081 | ×1.08 | +0.6% | |
| $1,333 | ×1.33 | +1.9% | |
| $1,068 | ×1.07 | +0.4% | |
| $1,121 | ×1.12 | +0.7% | |
| $1,698 | ×1.7 | +3.0% | |
| $886 | ×0.89 | −0.6% | |
| $1,231 | ×1.23 | +1.0% | |
| $1,647 | ×1.65 | +2.4% | |
| $1,726 | ×1.73 | +2.5% | |
| $1,948 | ×1.95 | +3.0% |
Lump sum or DCA in the Hang Seng?
Since January 2016, investing in the Hang Seng all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×1.12, +1.0% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×1.06, an annual return (IRR) of +1.1%.
Here DCA did better: spreading the purchases avoided putting all the money in at the wrong time.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in the Hang Seng 10 years ago be worth today?
$1,000 invested in the Hang Seng in January 2016 would be worth about $1,118 today, an average annual return of +1.0% (price only, in the displayed currency).
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Hang Seng in 2015?
Invested in January 2015, $1,000 would be worth about $1,039 today, +0.3% a year on average.
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Hang Seng in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $873 today, −1.9% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in the Hang Seng?
Among the start years covered, 2004 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $1,948. The weakest was 2018, worth $825 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. The Hang Seng trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.