What if I had invested in the S&P 500
Every lump sum scenario for the S&P 500, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
Since December 2003, the S&P 500 (a US stock index) grew 6.9-fold in dollar terms: an annualized return of +8.8% over nearly 23 years. Over the period, its monthly close ranged from a low of 735 points (February 2009) to a high of 7,686 points (August 2026). A lump sum invested in any month since December 2003 would be showing a gain today in 99% of cases.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 5, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in the S&P 500 in January 2016, today I would have $3,732
Over the same period
Worst moment: −24.8% between December 2021 and September 2022. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
S&P 500 (US) at a glance
The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest US-listed companies, weighted by market capitalization. US stocks make up about 70% of the MSCI World, which is why the two curves look so alike.
Its worst fall, 52.6% in dollar terms between October 2007 and February 2009, was only erased in March 2013, 5 years and 5 months after the peak. Its best calendar year was 2013 (+29.6%), its worst 2008 (−38.5%); in all, 17 up years out of 22. Against the MSCI World, this calculator's yardstick (+7.0% a year in dollar terms over the same period), the S&P 500 did better.
$1,000 invested in the S&P 500, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,297 | ×1.3 | +14.5% | |
| $1,599 | ×1.6 | +17.5% | |
| $1,987 | ×1.99 | +19.2% | |
| $1,601 | ×1.6 | +10.0% | |
| $2,031 | ×2.03 | +12.7% | |
| $2,361 | ×2.36 | +13.2% | |
| $3,043 | ×3.04 | +15.1% | |
| $2,853 | ×2.85 | +12.5% | |
| $3,407 | ×3.41 | +13.2% | |
| $3,732 | ×3.73 | +12.8% | |
| $3,705 | ×3.71 | +11.6% | |
| $4,127 | ×4.13 | +11.6% | |
| $5,349 | ×5.35 | +12.8% | |
| $6,066 | ×6.07 | +12.8% | |
| $6,066 | ×6.07 | +12.0% | |
| $6,841 | ×6.84 | +12.0% | |
| $8,446 | ×8.45 | +12.6% | |
| $5,195 | ×5.2 | +9.1% | |
| $5,379 | ×5.38 | +8.8% | |
| $6,111 | ×6.11 | +9.0% | |
| $6,295 | ×6.29 | +8.8% | |
| $6,861 | ×6.86 | +8.8% |
Lump sum or DCA in the S&P 500?
Since January 2016, investing in the S&P 500 all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×3.73, +12.8% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×2.18, an annual return (IRR) of +13.6%.
Here DCA did better: spreading the purchases avoided putting all the money in at the wrong time.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 10 years ago be worth today?
$1,000 invested in the S&P 500 in January 2016 would be worth about $3,732 today, an average annual return of +12.8% (price only, in the displayed currency).
What if I had invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 in 2015?
Invested in January 2015, $1,000 would be worth about $3,705 today, +11.6% a year on average.
What if I had invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $2,361 today, +13.2% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in the S&P 500?
Among the start years covered, 2009 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $8,446. The weakest was 2025, worth $1,297 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. The S&P 500 trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.