What if I had invested in Bitcoin
Every lump sum scenario for Bitcoin, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency, grew 203-fold in dollar terms between September 2014 and November 2026, an average of +54.8% a year. At $78,699, the price is 32.0% below the $115,758 record set in July 2025. A lump sum would have paid off for 89% of the 146 possible purchase months since September 2014; the rest are still underwater.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 4, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in Bitcoin in January 2016, today I would have $182,781
Over the same period
Worst moment: −75.6% between December 2017 and January 2019. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
Bitcoin at a glance
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency, launched in 2009, with a supply capped at 21 million coins. Its programmed scarcity and halving cycles made it the best-performing asset of the decade… and one of the most volatile, with drops of more than 70% along the way.
The ride was anything but smooth: between December 2017 and January 2019, Bitcoin lost 75.6% of its value in dollar terms, and it took until November 2020 to regain that peak, 2 years and 11 months later. Volatility is very high: the best calendar year, 2017, shows +1,368.9%, the worst, 2018, −73.6%; 8 of 11 years ended in the green. Over the same period, the MSCI World (price index) returned +9.1% a year in dollar terms: Bitcoin left it far behind.
$1,000 invested in Bitcoin, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $842 | ×0.84 | −8.6% | |
| $1,862 | ×1.86 | +23.8% | |
| $4,756 | ×4.76 | +48.9% | |
| $1,700 | ×1.7 | +11.4% | |
| $2,714 | ×2.71 | +18.4% | |
| $10,940 | ×11 | +41.3% | |
| $21,027 | ×21 | +46.9% | |
| $5,559 | ×5.56 | +21.2% | |
| $81,660 | ×82 | +55.9% | |
| $182,781 | ×183 | +61.1% | |
| $245,787 | ×246 | +58.7% |
Lump sum or DCA in Bitcoin?
Since January 2016, investing in Bitcoin all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×183, +61.1% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×22, an annual return (IRR) of +52.3%.
Here the lump sum did better: money invested early rode the whole rise. That is the most common outcome on an asset that goes up.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago be worth today?
$1,000 invested in Bitcoin in January 2016 would be worth about $182,781 today, an average annual return of +61.1% (price only, in the displayed currency).
What if I had invested $1,000 in Bitcoin in 2015?
Invested in January 2015, $1,000 would be worth about $245,787 today, +58.7% a year on average.
What if I had invested $1,000 in Bitcoin in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $10,940 today, +41.3% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in Bitcoin?
Among the start years covered, 2015 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $245,787. The weakest was 2025, worth $842 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. Bitcoin trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.