What if I had invested in NIO
Every lump sum scenario for NIO, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
NIO, a stock listed on Wall Street, lost 53.5% of its value in dollar terms between September 2018 and November 2026, −8.9% a year. At $3.25, the price is 94.3% below the $57.00 record set in January 2021, split-adjusted. Of 98 possible purchase months since September 2018, only 9% would be in profit today for a lump sum.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 5, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in NIO in January 2019, today I would have $510
Over the same period
Worst moment: −94.4% between January 2021 and October 2026. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
NIO at a glance
NIO is a Chinese premium electric-car maker known for its battery-swap stations. Its stock rose more than tenfold in 2020, then gave back most of those gains: a textbook growth-stock bubble.
Between January 2021 and October 2026, NIO lost 94.4% of its value in dollar terms, and that peak has still not been regained. Volatility is very high: the best calendar year, 2020, shows +1,112.4%, the worst, 2022, −69.2%; 2 of 7 years ended in the green. Over the same period, the MSCI World (price index) returned +10.4% a year in dollar terms: NIO lagged well behind.
$1,000 invested in NIO, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $745 | ×0.75 | −14.2% | |
| $358 | ×0.36 | −29.7% | |
| $333 | ×0.33 | −24.5% | |
| $103 | ×0.1 | −37.1% | |
| $66.65 | ×0.07 | −36.7% | |
| $808 | ×0.81 | −3.0% | |
| $510 | ×0.51 | −8.2% |
Lump sum or DCA in NIO?
Since January 2019, investing in NIO all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×0.51, −8.2% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×0.53, an annual return (IRR) of −16.4%.
Here the lump sum did better: money invested early rode the whole rise. That is the most common outcome on an asset that goes up.
Frequently asked questions
What if I had invested $1,000 in NIO in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $808 today, −3.0% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in NIO?
Among the start years covered, 2020 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $808. The weakest was 2021, worth $66.65 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. NIO trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.