What if I had invested in the Sensex
Every lump sum scenario for the Sensex, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
The Sensex, an Indian stock index, grew 6.5-fold in dollar terms between December 2003 and November 2026, an average of +8.5% a year. Its monthly close has moved between 4,760 points (May 2004) and 85,707 points (November 2025); it now stands at 79,310 points. A lump sum would have paid off for 90% of the 275 possible purchase months since December 2003; the rest are still underwater.
Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices, up to date as of (latest update November 5, 2026) MethodAuthor: Yann Avondo
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in the Sensex in January 2016, today I would have $2,136
Over the same period
Worst moment: −32.4% between December 2019 and March 2020. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
Sensex (India) at a glance
The Sensex tracks 30 large companies listed in Mumbai (Reliance, Infosys, HDFC…). Driven by India’s demographic and economic growth, it has been one of the steadiest emerging markets of the last twenty years, with a currency effect often unfavourable to foreign investors.
The ride was anything but smooth: between December 2007 and February 2009, the Sensex lost 66.2% of its value in dollar terms, and it took until December 2017 to regain that peak, 10 years later. Calendar year after calendar year, 15 of 22 ended higher; the best, 2009, returned +87.5%, the worst, 2008, cost 61.2%. Over the same period, the MSCI World (price index) returned +7.0% a year in dollar terms: the Sensex did better.
$1,000 invested in the Sensex, by start year
Bought in January, valued at the latest price. Click a year for the full story.
| Start | Worth today | Multiple | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $922 | ×0.92 | −4.2% | |
| $957 | ×0.96 | −1.5% | |
| $1,142 | ×1.14 | +3.4% | |
| $1,073 | ×1.07 | +1.4% | |
| $1,286 | ×1.29 | +4.3% | |
| $1,451 | ×1.45 | +5.5% | |
| $1,628 | ×1.63 | +6.3% | |
| $1,574 | ×1.57 | +5.2% | |
| $2,142 | ×2.14 | +8.0% | |
| $2,136 | ×2.14 | +7.2% | |
| $1,935 | ×1.93 | +5.7% | |
| $2,450 | ×2.45 | +7.2% | |
| $2,366 | ×2.37 | +6.4% | |
| $2,879 | ×2.88 | +7.3% | |
| $1,834 | ×1.83 | +3.9% | |
| $2,231 | ×2.23 | +4.9% | |
| $4,183 | ×4.18 | +8.3% | |
| $1,624 | ×1.62 | +2.6% | |
| $2,682 | ×2.68 | +5.1% | |
| $4,017 | ×4.02 | +6.9% | |
| $5,507 | ×5.51 | +8.1% | |
| $6,547 | ×6.55 | +8.5% |
Lump sum or DCA in the Sensex?
Since January 2016, investing in the Sensex all at once (lump sum) multiplied the stake by ×2.14, +7.2% a year. Investing every month (DCA) multiplied the total contributions by ×1.37, an annual return (IRR) of +5.6%.
Here the lump sum did better: money invested early rode the whole rise. That is the most common outcome on an asset that goes up.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in the Sensex 10 years ago be worth today?
$1,000 invested in the Sensex in January 2016 would be worth about $2,136 today, an average annual return of +7.2% (price only, in the displayed currency).
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Sensex in 2015?
Invested in January 2015, $1,000 would be worth about $1,935 today, +5.7% a year on average.
What if I had invested $1,000 in the Sensex in 2020?
Invested in January 2020, $1,000 would be worth about $1,451 today, +5.5% a year on average.
What was the best year to invest in the Sensex?
Among the start years covered, 2004 gave the best result: $1,000 would have become $6,547. The weakest was 2025, worth $922 today. This ranking is only known with hindsight.
Are dividends included?
By default, the calculation follows the market price only. The "Reinvest dividends" option uses the adjusted price, which includes dividends paid and stock splits: the closest measure of what an investor actually earned.
Are exchange rates taken into account?
Yes. The Sensex trades in its own currency; every purchase and valuation is converted at that month's exchange rate. A US asset can gain in dollars and less in euros if the dollar weakened.
Are fees and taxes included?
No: results are before brokerage fees, fund fees and taxes. Your net result depends on the account you invest through.
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Method: past performance, computed from split-adjusted monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, exchange rates, US Treasury bills), Eurostat (inflation), published regulated rates (Livret A). Not investment advice. NokxiHub.