What if I invested in the Nikkei 225 in 2004? Worth today
Every lump sum scenario for the Nikkei 225, start year by start year, using real prices and each month's exchange rate.
Prices updated on September 21, 2026
If I had invested $1,000 as a lump sum in the Nikkei 225 in January 2004, today I would have $4,156
Over the same period
Worst moment: −47.9% between April 2006 and February 2009. To get this result, you had to hold on without selling.
What happened
$1,000 invested in the Nikkei 225 in January 2004 would be worth $4,156 in September 2026: ×4.16 the initial stake in 22.8 years (+6.5% a year on average).
It was not a straight line: between April 2006 and February 2009, the Nikkei 225 lost −47.9% of its value. The result above assumes you held everything through that fall.
Over the same period, the same amount in the MSCI World would have returned $4,812: without betting on a single asset, you would have done better.
Left in US Treasury bills, the money would have grown to $1,487.
Best calendar year: 2013 (+28.4%). Worst year: 2008 (−28.7%).
Nikkei 225 (Japan), other start years
Compare with
Before you have regrets
What this calculation does not tell you.
Hindsight bias
Picking Nvidia or Bitcoin today means picking known winners. Back then, nothing set them apart from hundreds of assets that went nowhere or vanished.
Holding on was the real test
The result assumes you never sold, including through the drawdowns shown above. Very few investors actually do.
The broad market, no bet required
The MSCI World never makes headlines, but it does not require guessing the winner. It is the fairest yardstick for any pick.
Past performance, computed from monthly closing prices (intra-month lows are smoothed out). Converted at each month’s exchange rate; no fees, no taxes. The MSCI World benchmark is the price index, excluding dividends. Not investment advice. NokxiHub.